CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-08-25T15:01:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-08-25T15:01Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-08-28T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2014-08-26T04:34Z

Model Inputs:
2014-08-25T15:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=74.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=500.0, HalfAngle=60.0, Time21.5=2014-08-25T22:15Z 
2014-08-25T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=77.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=800.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2014-08-26T01:15Z 

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2014-08-28T18:00Z (confidence level +- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mess_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140825_221500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 61.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-08-26T04:34Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy